Risely AI Research

August 2026

In Ohio, the median balance keeping a stopped-out adult from re-enrolling was $735

Eight Ohio institutions cleared old student balances, and the new tuition that followed was about 21 times what they would ever have collected.

Published August 2026. Every figure carries a named source or its arithmetic.

In short

  1. The median past-due balance blocking a stopped-out student in Ohio was $735, and students substantially overestimated what they owed (Ithaka S+R, 2023).
  2. Kentucky public institutions expect to collect between 8 and 56 percent of the balances behind their registration holds, and roughly one in five adults who stopped out of those institutions carries one (Ithaka S+R, 2025).
  3. Eight Ohio institutions cleared $600,000 in old balances, re-enrolled 723 adults, and took in $2 million of new tuition, about 21 times the roughly $94,000 the institutions would ever have collected on those balances; the multiple is computed from Ithaka S+R's three-year evaluation (2026).
  4. Students who start college at 25 or older reach a second fall at 43.6 percent, against 77.1 percent for entering students overall, a computed 33.5-point gap (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2026).
  5. Adults who received credit for prior learning completed a credential at 49 percent, compared with 27 percent of adults without it, yet only 11 percent of entering adult students received any (CAEL and WICHE, revised December 2020).

The hold at the registration screen

A shift supervisor in her mid-thirties logs into the student portal of the college she left eight years ago. She has picked a program, checked the tuition against her employer's education benefit, and set aside a Sunday evening to register. The cart will not open. A red banner says her account has a hold.

A registration hold is a block an institution places on a student's record over an unpaid balance. Until the balance is settled, the student cannot register for classes, and at many institutions cannot get an official transcript either. The credits she already earned and paid for sit behind the same block. Researchers call these stranded credits: credits a student holds but cannot use or move, because the transcript that proves them is withheld. She herself is what the research calls a stopped-out student, a person who left college without a credential and without enrolling anywhere else.

She assumes she owes thousands. Most people in her position do. When Ithaka S+R studied stopped-out students in Ohio in 2023, students substantially overestimated what they owed. The median balance actually blocking them was $735 (Ithaka S+R, 2023).

Who comes back, and who stays out

43.1 million Americans hold some college and no credential, and 37.6 million of them are under 65 (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2025, counting through July 31, 2023). The figure describes people who started a degree, paid for part of one, and did not finish. In 2023-24, 1,009,000 of them re-enrolled somewhere in higher education. That is 2.7 percent of the working-age group (NSC Research Center, 2025).

Figure 1. Of 37.6 million working-age adults with some college and no credential, about one million re-enrolled in 2023-24, and roughly four in ten of the prior year's returners stopped out again within a year.
From 43.1 million adults with some college and no credential to the returners who stopped out againSome college, no credential43.1 millionUnder age 6537.6 million020 million40 millionThe rows below are drawn on a scale forty times finer.Re-enrolled in 2023-242.7% of the working-age group1,009,000Stopped out again within twelve months41.3% of the 901,000 who re-enrolled in 2022-23 (computed)about 372,0000500,0001 million

The two upper rows are drawn against a scale of 44 million people and the two lower rows against a scale of 1.1 million, forty times finer, so the smaller stages stay visible. The first three stages describe adults with some college and no credential as of July 31, 2023 and re-enrollees in 2023-24. The final stage describes the 2022-23 re-enrolling cohort, a different year's cohort, and is labelled computed.

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Some College, No Credential, 2025; final stage computed from the same report

The adults who do return face longer odds than the students around them. A student who starts college at 25 or older reaches a second fall term at 43.6 percent, against 77.1 percent for entering students as a whole (NSC Research Center, Persistence and Retention, 2026, fall 2024 entering cohort). The gap is 33.5 points, computed from those two rates. Adult starters were the only group in the cohort whose rate moved backwards.

Figure 2. A student who starts college at 25 or older reaches a second fall at 43.6 percent, while entering students overall reach 77.1 percent. Adult starters were the only group whose rate declined.
The share of students reaching a second fall, entering students overall against students starting at 25 or olderEntering students overall77.1%Started college at 25 or older43.6%33.5-point gap (computed)0%25%50%75%100%

Fall 2024 entering cohort of 2.62 million students. The 33.5-point gap is computed from the two published rates.

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Persistence and Retention, June 2026

Coming back once does not settle it. Among students who re-enrolled in 2022-23 without a credential, 41.3 percent stopped out again within twelve months, a share computed from the Clearinghouse's 2025 report.

The demand is there. 68 percent of stopped-out adults say they considered re-enrolling within the previous two years, and when asked what would bring them back, they name flexible course delivery and the ability to finish in a short time, tied at 47 percent each (Gallup and Lumina Foundation, 2026, from a survey of 14,062 adults aged 18-59 without a degree).

Why the hold exists

The hold is ordinary receivables practice. A past-due balance is money the institution is owed, and the office that bills students and collects payment, the bursar's office, holds few levers. A collection agency keeps a share of whatever it recovers. A write-off has to be justified to the auditors and the board. Blocking registration and the transcript until the student settles costs the office nothing to run.

Kentucky measured what the practice looks like from the inside. Roughly one in five adults who stopped out of a Kentucky public institution carries a registration hold, and the average balance behind those holds is about $2,500 (Ithaka S+R, 2025). The balance that triggers a hold varies across institutions, from one cent to $2,000. When institutions were asked what share of these balances they expect to collect, the answers ranged from 8 percent to 56 percent (Ithaka S+R, 2025).

Figure 3. Kentucky public institutions expect to collect between 8 and 56 cents of every dollar behind a registration hold. The Ohio evaluation used a 15 percent recovery rate for its collections estimate.
The expected collection rate on balances behind registration holdsExpected collection rate8% to 56%0%25%50%75%100%

The dashed line marks 15 percent, the recovery rate Ithaka S+R used to estimate collections in the Ohio evaluation.

The range reflects what Kentucky public institutions reported expecting to collect on past-due balances carried by stopped-out students.

Source: Ithaka S+R, Supporting Adult Learner Engagement in Kentucky, 2025 (range); Ithaka S+R, 2026 (15% reference)

The national exposure is large and loosely measured. Ithaka S+R modeled roughly $6.5 billion of institutional debt held by about 6.6 million students in fiscal year 2018 (Ithaka S+R, 2020). The 6.6 million is a modeled extrapolation from a 406-institution benchmarking study, and the plausible range around it runs from 1.4 million to 8.3 million students. The average balance in that model was about $2,300.

The average and the median say different things. A few large balances pull an average up. The median, the balance owed by the person in the middle of the line, was $735 in Ohio (Ithaka S+R, 2023). So the typical hold protects a receivable smaller than the price of one course, and the institution holding it expects, by its own estimate, to collect between 8 and 56 cents of each dollar (Ithaka S+R, 2025).

Figure 4. Averages run near $2,300 to $2,500 because a few large balances pull them up. The median stopped-out student in Ohio owed $735.
Average balances against the Ohio median balance behind a registration holdNational average, fiscal year 2018 modelabout $2,300Kentucky average, balances behind holdsabout $2,500Ohio median$735$0$1,000$2,000

Average balance

Median balance

Three different populations and two different measures. The national figure is a model of fiscal year 2018 balances owed by students; Kentucky covers stopped-out adults from public institutions with holds; Ohio covers stopped-out students studied in 2023, with program eligibility capped at $5,000. The contrast shown is mean versus median, and the bars are labelled by measure.

Source: Ithaka S+R, Solving Stranded Credits, 2020 (national average, modeled); Ithaka S+R, 2025 (Kentucky average); Ithaka S+R, 2023 (Ohio median)

Eight Ohio institutions tested the arithmetic

Between 2022 and 2025, eight public colleges and universities in northeast Ohio put the hold to a test. Under the Ohio College Comeback Compact, a regional program evaluated by Ithaka S+R, a stopped-out adult who returned to any of the eight could have a past-due balance of up to $5,000 cleared. Each of these students had already been recruited, admitted and taught once.

Over three years the Compact institutions resolved $600,000 in balances held by more than 15,000 eligible adults. 723 came back, a re-enrollment rate of 4.6 percent and more than double the rate for Ohio's stopped-out adults overall. Of those who returned, 52 percent enrolled for two or more terms, and 109 earned a credential. Their new tuition passed $2 million (Ithaka S+R, 2026).

The other side of the ledger is what those balances were worth as receivables. At a 15 percent recovery rate, collections on the cleared balances would have come to roughly $94,000 (Ithaka S+R, 2026). The institutions gave that up and took in $2 million of new tuition, about 21 times as much (computed from Ithaka S+R, 2026).

Figure 5. Eight Ohio institutions cleared $600,000 in old balances. As receivables, those balances were worth roughly $94,000. The students they unblocked paid $2 million in new tuition, about 21 times as much (computed).
Balances cleared, their collectible value, and the new tuition that followedPast-due balances cleared$600,000Collectible value at a 15% recovery rateroughly $94,000New tuition from returning students$2,000,000about 21 times as much (computed)$0$1 million$2 million

More than 15,000 eligible stopped-out adults across eight public institutions in northeast Ohio, 2022-2025.

Source: Ithaka S+R, three-year evaluation of the Ohio College Comeback Compact, 2026; multiple computed

Figure 6. Of more than 15,000 adults whose balances were cleared, 723 re-enrolled, over half stayed for two or more terms, and 109 finished a credential within the three-year window.
The Ohio College Comeback Compact, from balances cleared to credentials earnedHad a past-due balance clearedmore than 15,00008,00016,000The rows below are drawn on a scale twenty times finer.Re-enrolled4.6%, more than double the statewide adult rate723Enrolled for two or more terms52% of returnersEarned a credential1090400800

The top row is drawn against a scale of 16,000 adults and the rows below it against a scale of 800, twenty times finer, so the smaller stages stay visible. The bar for two or more terms is drawn at 52 percent of the 723 who returned, the share as published. Compact-eligible stopped-out adults at eight public institutions in northeast Ohio, 2022-2025. Outcome counts run through spring 2025. The Compact stopped enrolling new students after fall 2025 and concludes in spring 2026, so Ithaka S+R expects the credential count to rise.

Source: Ithaka S+R, three-year evaluation of the Ohio College Comeback Compact, 2026

What a returning student brings with her

A returning student arrives with finished credits from her first enrollment and years of work experience since. The record on how institutions count both is mixed.

Credits travel badly. Students who transferred between institutions lost an estimated 43 percent of their credits, about 13 credits or nearly a full-time semester (Government Accountability Office, 2017, from federal data on students who entered college between 2004 and 2009; the estimate's 95 percent confidence interval is 40 to 45 percent). In an earlier federal transcript study, 39 percent of transfer students transferred no credits at all (National Center for Education Statistics, 2014).

Maryland's statewide accounting shows where the loss sits. Transfer students who finished a bachelor's degree carried about 9 excess credits on average, community college credits that ended up counting toward nothing (Maryland Higher Education Commission, 2026). The problem lives in how transfer credit gets evaluated, and it is concentrated: 40 percent of those graduates carried no excess credits at all, while the top tenth carried 50, about four full-time terms (Maryland Higher Education Commission, 2026).

Figure 7. Excess credits are community college credits that end up counting toward nothing. Four in ten Maryland transfer graduates carried none. The top tenth carried 50, about four full-time terms, and they pull the average to 9.
Excess credits carried by Maryland transfer graduates, by groupThe 40% who carried none0 excess creditsStudents between the two groupsNo single average published for this group.The top tenth50 excess credits, about four full-time terms01020304050Average: about 9 excess credits

Maryland community college transfer students who completed a bachelor's degree. 40% carry no excess credits and the top tenth carry 50, so the mean of 9 describes almost nobody. The report publishes the full distribution; it gives no single average for the students between the two groups.

Source: Maryland Higher Education Commission, Uncounted Credits, January 2026

The other asset is learning that never carried course credit in the first place. Credit for prior learning turns knowledge from work, training or military service into course credit through formal assessment. A 72-institution study by the Council for Adult and Experiential Learning and the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (CAEL and WICHE, revised December 2020) found that adults who received it completed a credential at 49 percent, while adults without it completed at 27 percent, and the rate was 73 percent when military credit is set aside. These are observed rates, and the study did not randomize. The average award was 14.8 credits, worth $1,481-$10,220 in avoided tuition depending on sector, and 9 to 14 months of time. Students who received the credit went on to earn 17.6 more traditional course credits than adults who did not. Take-up among entering adult students is 11 percent, and 4 percent once military credit is excluded (CAEL and WICHE, revised December 2020).

Figure 8. Adults who received credit for prior learning finished a credential at 49 percent, compared with 27 percent for those without it, and 73 percent for non-military prior learning. Few adults receive it: 11 percent overall, and 4 percent once military credit is excluded.
Credential completion with and without credit for prior learning, and how few adults receive itCOMPLETED A CREDENTIALTAKE-UP AMONG ENTERING ADULT STUDENTSReceived credit for prior learning49%Did not receive it27%Received non-military prior learning credit73%Received any prior learning credit11%Excluding military credit4%0%25%50%75%100%

Adult students across 69 institutions in the completion sample (24,512 with prior learning credit and 208,110 without), academic years 2011-12 through 2018. Rates are observational, from different student groups within the study.

Source: CAEL and WICHE, The PLA Boost, revised December 2020 edition

The receivables question comes first

The arithmetic for a chief financial officer is short. A hold protects the collectible value of a past-due balance, and Kentucky institutions put their own expected collection rate between 8 and 56 percent (Ithaka S+R, 2025). Ohio's three-year test priced the trade at $2 million of new tuition for roughly $94,000 of forgone collections, about 21 times as much, a multiple computed from Ithaka S+R's 2026 evaluation.

68 percent of stopped-out adults told Gallup and Lumina (2026) they had considered going back within the past two years. The one number left to check is the median blocking balance on an institution's own books. In Ohio it was $735 (Ithaka S+R, 2023).

Methodology

Here is every computed figure in this piece, with its arithmetic:

  • 33.5-point second-fall gap. 77.1% (all entering students reaching a second fall) minus 43.6% (students starting at age 25 or older) equals 33.5 percentage points. Both rates are published in NSC Research Center, Persistence and Retention, June 2026, fall 2024 entering cohort. The subtraction is ours.
  • 41.3% stopped out again within twelve months. NSC's Some College, No Credential 2025 report states that of the 901,000 students who re-enrolled in 2022-23 without completing, 529,000 (58.7%) persisted into a second year. 100% minus 58.7% equals 41.3%, about 372,000 students. The subtraction is ours.
  • About 21 times. Ithaka S+R's 2026 three-year evaluation reports $2 million in new tuition from re-enrolled students and roughly $94,000 as what the institutions would have collected on the cleared balances at a 15 percent recovery rate. $2,000,000 divided by $94,000 is approximately 21.3, stated as "about 21 times." The recovery estimate is Ithaka S+R's; the division is ours.
  • 2.7 percent re-enrollment rate. Reported by NSC (2025): 1,009,000 re-enrollees in 2023-24 out of the 37.6 million working-age (under 65) adults with some college and no credential. 1,009,000 / 37,600,000 ≈ 2.7%. NSC publishes the rate; the arithmetic is shown for checkability.
  • "8 to 56 cents of each dollar." A restatement of the 8% to 56% expected collection range reported by Ithaka S+R (2025). No new arithmetic.
  • "More than double" the Ohio adult re-enrollment rate. Reported by Ithaka S+R (2026) alongside the 4.6% figure; it is their comparison, carried as published.
  • "About four full-time terms" (Maryland top decile). The Maryland Higher Education Commission (January 2026) reports the top decile carried 50 excess credits; at a standard full-time load of 12-15 credits per term, 50 credits is about four terms. The characterization follows the report.

Figures reported as published, with no computation: $735 median (Ithaka S+R, 2023); one in five with holds, ~$2,500 average, one cent to $2,000 thresholds (Ithaka S+R, 2025); $600,000 cleared, 15,000+ eligible, 723 re-enrolled, 4.6%, 52% two or more terms, 109 credentials, $2 million tuition, ~$94,000 collections estimate (Ithaka S+R, 2026); $6.5 billion, 6.6 million students, 1.4-8.3 million range, ~$2,300 average (Ithaka S+R, 2020); 43.1 million, 37.6 million, 1,009,000 (NSC, 2025); 43.6%, 77.1% (NSC, 2026); 68%, 47%, 47%, n=14,062 (Gallup and Lumina, 2026); 43%, ~13 credits, 95% CI 40-45% (GAO, 2017); 39% (NCES, 2014); ~9 excess credits, 40%, 50 credits (MHEC, 2026); 49%, 27%, 73%, 11%, 4%, 14.8 credits, $1,481-$10,220, 9-14 months, 17.6 credits (CAEL and WICHE, revised December 2020).

The national 6.6 million figure is a modeled extrapolation from a 406-institution benchmarking study, and it is carried everywhere in this piece with its plausible range of 1.4 to 8.3 million (Ithaka S+R, 2020).

Questions this answers

What is a registration hold in college?
A registration hold is a block an institution places on a student's record, usually over an unpaid balance, that prevents registering for classes and often blocks the official transcript. Roughly one in five adults who stopped out of a Kentucky public institution carries one, with an average balance of about $2,500, and the balance that triggers a hold ranges across institutions from one cent to $2,000 (Ithaka S+R, 2025).
How much do stopped-out students actually owe their colleges?
Less than most people assume, including the students themselves. The median balance blocking a stopped-out student in Ohio was $735, and students substantially overestimated what they owed (Ithaka S+R, 2023). Modeled national figures average about $2,300 per student, and the averages are pulled up by a small number of large balances (Ithaka S+R, 2020).
Did the Ohio College Comeback Compact work?
Over three years, eight institutions cleared $600,000 in balances for more than 15,000 stopped-out adults; 723 re-enrolled, 52 percent of them stayed two or more terms, 109 earned a credential, and their new tuition passed $2 million, compared with roughly $94,000 the institutions would ever have collected on those balances at a 15 percent recovery rate (Ithaka S+R, 2026). The 21-times multiple is computed from those two published figures. It is one program in one region over three years, and the arithmetic comes from its published totals.
How many adults with some college ever go back?
43.1 million Americans hold some college and no credential, 37.6 million of them under 65, and 1,009,000 re-enrolled in 2023-24, which is 2.7 percent of the working-age group (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2025). Of those who re-enrolled the prior year, 41.3 percent stopped out again within twelve months (computed from the same report series).
Do returning adult students get credit for what they already know?
Rarely. Only 11 percent of entering adult students received credit for prior learning, and 4 percent once military credit is excluded, even though adults who received it completed a credential at 49 percent against 27 percent without it (CAEL and WICHE, revised December 2020). Transfer credit fares little better: students who moved between institutions lost an estimated 43 percent of their credits (GAO, 2017).

Sources

Cite this as

Risely AI Research, "In Ohio, the median balance keeping a stopped-out adult from re-enrolling was $735," August 2026.

Last updated August 2026. Published by Risely AI.