Welcome to Agentic Enrollment Projections thatprojects fall from the live funnel instead of last year's spreadsheet.
The budget stands on one number, and that number is usually a spreadsheet with last year's melt rate inside. Risely's agents project fall from the real funnel and the real cohort curves, and an IR analyst signs every update that leaves the office.
Fall projection · updating as reality lands
reading the funnel
Applications
each segment on its own curve
Admits
conversion re-fit as decisions land
Deposits
the week's arrivals read in
11,180
central projection
range settling
each bar is a week of deposits later
The projection reads the funnel enrollment actually works.
Applications, admits, and deposits by segment, each with its own conversion curve. The model reads the same pipeline the enrollment office manages every day, so the projection and the recruiting reality can never drift apart.
The funnel is read directly
reading
Applications
by segment, each with its own curve
Admits
conversion re-fit as decisions land
Deposits
the strongest signal read weekly
The projection reads the same pipeline the enrollment office works every day.
Each cohort keeps its own curve.
Continuing enrollment comes from each cohort's actual retention history rather than one blended rate. The sophomore dip gets its own model instead of becoming October's surprise.
Continuing enrollment, cohort by cohort
One blended retention rate hides exactly the dip that breaks the budget. Each curve stays its own.
The range narrows as reality lands.
Every deposit and registration tightens the range around the central number. The August surprise becomes twelve small weekly adjustments nobody has to apologize for, and the budget office watches each one land.
11,180
central projection
narrowing
each bar is a week of deposits later
Every deposit tightens the range, and the range stays printed next to the number it qualifies.
Every assumption sits on its own line.
The provost's what-if is a toggle with an instant answer, because the assumptions are visible lines in the model rather than cells in someone's personal spreadsheet. The number everything depends on can finally be seen inside.
The assumptions, out in the open
The provost's what-if gets an instant answer, on the record
The single number everything depends on stops being the one nobody can see inside.
One thing moves. The projection re-runs.
A deposit clears, a melt signal fires, a cohort's curve shifts. Any of them moves the number the budget stands on, and every one runs the same way.
A week of deposits posts
each one reads into the funnel
The segments reconverge
every conversion curve re-fits
The range narrows
the central number barely moves
The assumptions log the change
visible, togglable, dated
The analyst signs the update
small, weekly, no apology
What changes, and how it runs.
The budget stands on a visible model
Every assumption is a line anyone can read and toggle.
The range narrows every week
Twelve small adjustments replace one August correction.
The projection stays honest
A central number, a printed range, and no false precision.
The technical read
Connects read-only to your SIS and admissions funnel to start
An IR analyst signs every projection update
Every action lands on an append-only log
Runs alongside what you have. Nothing rips out.