Welcome to Agentic Persistence Forecasting thatcarries a return forecast on every student, all term long.
Every student carries a forecast of returning next term, and Risely's agents keep it current all term long. When a forecast slips under the watch line, the reasons come with it, and an advisor decides what happens next.
Return forecast · one student
spring · through week 9
71%
chance of returning in spring
watch line at 80%
Routed to her advisor with all three reasons and the weeks they landed.
The advisor decides what reaches the student.
The whole cohort carries a forecast, every week.
Risely's agents forecast the quiet students on the same pass as the loud ones. Between the term's open and week 9 a handful change bands, and the office can see exactly which ones while the term is still running.
The forecast board
as the term opened
Each square is a student carrying a forecast. Between the term's open and week 9, a handful change bands, and the office can see which ones while the term is still running.
Nothing in her term looked wrong.
No failed course, no hold, no missed payment. The three things that moved her forecast were all about next term, so no office watching this term had any reason to raise a hand.
What fired
nothing
the LMS early-alert rule · under its line
registration outreach · the window is still open
the aid office · the deadline is still ahead
Every one of these signals is about next term, so no office watching this term had a reason to raise a hand.
The watch line is where a person gets involved.
Above the line, Risely's agents keep forecasting and nobody gets interrupted. Under it, the student gets an owner, the reasons travel with the handoff, and the advisor decides whether to send, to call, or to close it.
Watch band
the line sits at 80%
"Spring registration opened two weeks ago and your schedule is still empty. Can we build it together this week?"
drafted and held for the advisor
A forecast routes the work to a person. Closing it is a real option, and an advisor who knows the student takes it often.
The census names who left, months after they decided.
A student stops planning in week 9 and gets counted in September. Risely's agents put the same question in a week where registration, aid, and one conversation can still change the answer.
When anybody knows
Weeks 4 to 9
the decision quietly forms
Week 9
the forecast crosses, an advisor calls
January
she registers, or she does not
September
the census finally counts it
The census names who left months after they decided. The forecast puts the same question in a week where an answer can still change.
One thing moves. The forecast re-runs.
An empty spring schedule, an unfiled renewal, a week of thin course activity. Any of them moves what next term looks like, and every one runs the same way.
The spring schedule stays empty
the registration window has been open two weeks
The aid renewal goes unfiled
the deadline is still ahead, so nobody flags it
The forecast slips under the line
92% has become 71%
An advisor gets the reasons
three signals, six weeks, one page
The conversation happens in the term
while registration and aid can still change
What changes, and how it runs.
The whole cohort carries a forecast
The quiet students are forecast on the same pass as everyone else.
The slide shows while the term is running
Registration, aid, and one conversation can all still change it.
September holds fewer surprises
The office knew in the autumn which students needed a call.
The technical read
Connects read-only to your SIS, LMS, and bursar ledger to start
An advisor approves every send
Every action lands on an append-only log
Runs alongside what you have. Nothing rips out.