Keep the students already paid to win.
Roughly one in four first-year students does not return, and the sentence that said so was written weeks earlier, one fragment per system. Risely's agents read the leaving signal the week it lands, carry the case across advising and financial aid, and close the loop while the term can still be saved.
One term, two calendars
with Risely's agents
9 weeks of lead time
the standard calendar
One record shows the risk nine weeks early.
RetentionRisk Model
The registrar posts a sophomore's drop from 12 to 9 credits the same week her LMS activity goes quiet. Her score moves 41 to 82 on the next pass.
↓ the warning, evidence attached
AdvisingSAP & Standing Guardian
The case shows 9 credits against the 12 her Pell award was packaged on. The advisor brief and the aid-office referral draft with a three-credit recovery path worked out.
↓ a referral naming the disbursement at stake
RetentionCase Management
Tutoring, the aid fix, and the advising follow-up run on one plan until the fix holds. The next pass scores her 31, and the chain closes where it opened.
Every draft waits for a person's approval, and every approved action writes back to the record.
The week-3 catch.
One moment from the chain, at full depth: the recovery path priced before the disbursement moves, held for her advisor's approval.
Week 3
signal read the week it exists
A sophomore
Biology · dropped to 9 of 12 credits
82
risk score
Advisor brief + aid-office referral
The drop lands while her Pell disbursement is pending, so the award recalculates at 9 credits. A three-credit late-start course restores full time before the money moves. Brief for the advisor, referral for the aid office, both ready to send.
the value of the move
9 weeks of lead time
the warning lands in week 3 instead of the week-12 midterm report, while the term can still be saved
The agents that move this number.
Each one is a workflow that reads end to end, worked example included.
What changes, and how it runs.
The catch moves to week 3
Nine weeks of lead time over the midterm-report calendar.
More students stay enrolled
Help arrives while the term can still be saved. The margin on a saved student is nearly the whole tuition line.
A retention point is worth six to seven figures a year
It recurs every year, and this chain is where it is won or lost. A kept student is revenue already earned.
The technical read
Connects read-only to existing source systems to start
A person approves every send
Every action lands on an append-only log
Runs alongside existing systems. Nothing rips out.